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Forecast
The rate of growth of the global economy will slow down according to the latest forecasts. The Kieler Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW – Kiel Institute of World Economics) has revised its growth forecast for the current year. Growth in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.8% is now expected in 2011 and of 3.5% in 2012. In Asia the upwards trend continues to be marked. The Chinese economy is still growing. The forecast for the GDP there amounts to +9.0% for 2011 and to +8.0% for 2012. Japan is on the way to returning to normality. Following an estimated decline in the Japanese GDP of –0.4% in the current year, the IfW now expects a rise of 1.5% for the coming year. Estimates for the USA are moderate. In Europe the economic expansion is progressing at a subdued rate. For 2011, growth in the eurozone is expected to be 1.4% and in the following year 0.6%. The economy in Germany is following a more dynamic trend than that of most other European countries. According to the October forecasts, German gross domestic product will grow in 2011 by 2.9%, whilst a rise of 0.8% is assumed for 2012.
The worldwide market for machine tools is developing positively in 2011. In the latest forecast (as at October 2011), the economic associations, VDW and Oxford Economics, are expecting growth in worldwide machine tool consumption for 2011 of 16.9% to € 52.6 billion (forecast April 2011: 19.6%). In Asia demand is expected to grow by 14.3%, in America by 25.6% and in Europe growth should reach 20.5%. Strong boosts to consumption continue to come from the bric countries: Brazil, Russia, India and China. In Germany growth of 37.4% is anticipated.
The associations are also anticipating growth in the global machine tool market for 2012; consumption is expected to rise by 15.5% to € 60.8 billion compared to 2011.
Our cooperation with the Japanese machine tool builder Mori Seiki is progressing successfully long-term. The cooperation in the Asian and North American cooperation markets was expanded on 1 September 2011 to include the German market and will be further expanded at the start of next year by combining sales and service activities in Europe. This partnership is of particular benefit to our customers. Through this cooperation synergies arise for both companies in production, in procurement, in research and development, in sales and services as well as in the financing of machines.
The cooperation with Mori Seiki remains an essential component of our long-term strategy. In addition to directing our machine tool business towards global markets, our sector focus on fields such as aerospace, medical technology and renewable energy sources has proven to be pioneering. By concentrating expertise we are able to attain an increase in efficiency. An orientation towards the service business with its innovative range of products has proven to be a crisis-resistant pillar of our corporate strategy and with “Energy Solutions” GILDEMEISTER has a division with future potential.
For the whole year 2011 we are raising our order intake forecast. From now on we are expecting order intake of more than € 1.9 billion. Thus order intake will be distributed to the segments as in the last nine months. We intend to increase sales revenues to more than € 1.6 billion. The distribution over the “Machine Tools” and “Services” segments will closely follow the growth pattern up to 30 September. In “Energy Solutions” we are planning a clear increase in sales revenues in the fourth quarter. We are expecting clear growth in EBIT, EBT and also in annual profit for the whole year. Due to the as yet unforeseeable effects of the worldwide debt crisis, specific statements are not possible at present. We are planning to distribute a dividend for financial year 2011.
Following the successful re-financing, GILDEMEISTER has a solid financial framework for the next five years and has the necessary liquidity for the planned business development. For the whole year we are planning positive free cash flow of more than € 40 million.
In the course of the cooperation with Mori Seiki, a marketing-related re-naming of companies is planned. It is not planned to make significant changes to the legal corporate structure.
In the current financial year we are planning to increase investments in property, plant and equipment and intangible assets – without taking goodwill additions into account – to about € 70.0 million.
Activities in the area of research and development are aimed at further expanding our innovative range of products. In doing so, we are continuing to pursue our long-term development goals. The development budget for 2011 of about € 54 million is slightly above our original planning of € 51.0 million.